Sales Finally Bounce Back — But Is It Enough to Shift the Market?
For the first time in recent months, year-over-year sales are up 4.1% in London Ontario. March 2026 brings cautious optimism — but with HPI benchmarks still down 7.4–8.3% and the SNLR at 39.3%, buyers remain firmly in control.
March 2026 at a Glance
March 2026 delivers the most encouraging sales number in recent months: 586 homes sold, up 4.1% year-over-year — the first positive year-over-year reading after several months of declining sales. Seasonal demand has clearly returned, and the pace is picking up, with median days on market tightening to 25 days from February's 28.
That said, the market remains in buyer's territory. The sales-to-new-listings ratio of 39.3% sits just below the 40% floor of a balanced market, active listings are up 7.0% year-over-year to 2,739, and months of inventory sits at 4.7. The improvement from February's 5.9 months is meaningful — but one month of stronger sales does not a recovery make.
"586 homes sold — up 4.1% year-over-year. The first positive sales reading in months. The market is showing early signs of life, but with HPI still down 7.4–8.3% and inventory elevated, buyers remain in the driver's seat."
Ryan Hodge & Sandra Tavares · The Realty Firm Inc. BrokerageHPI Benchmark Prices — Still Softening, But the Rate Is Moderating
The HPI (Home Price Index) benchmark remains the most reliable pricing metric — measuring the price of a typical home without distortion from outlier sales. In March 2026, benchmark prices are down 7.4–8.3% year-over-year. While still a significant year-over-year decline, the rate of decrease is moderating compared to the 8.7–9.5% drops recorded in February.
| Property Type | HPI Benchmark | Year-Over-Year |
|---|---|---|
| Composite (All Types) | $563,000 | ▼ 7.4% |
| Single-Family Detached | $617,200 | ▼ 8.3% |
| Townhouse / Row | $453,000 | ▼ 7.4% |
The average sale price of $627,112 is down 2.5% year-over-year — a smaller decline than February's 3.5%. The median of $581,500 dropped 1.9%, also a moderation from February's 4.3% fall. The sale-to-list ratio holds steady at 97.4%, meaning buyers are still successfully negotiating roughly 2.6% below asking price on average.
Inventory Growth Is Slowing — A Notable Shift
New listings came in at 1,490 — up just 1.3% year-over-year, reflecting typical spring market activity. Active listings of 2,739 are up 7.0% from March 2025 — elevated, but the pace of inventory growth has slowed meaningfully from January's 12.0% and February's 13.0% year-over-year gains. When inventory growth slows while sales rise, that's a market rebalancing signal worth noting.
Months of inventory dropped to 4.7 from February's 5.9 — a full 1.2-month improvement in a single month. At 4.7 months, the market remains in buyer's territory but is moving back toward the balanced range of 4.0–6.0. The 25-day median days on market — down from 28 in February and 47 in January — reflects a market that is picking up speed heading into spring.
Buyers and Sellers: Reading the March Signals
Still Favourable — But the Window Is Showing Signs of Narrowing
- HPI still down 7.4–8.3% YoY — buying at a meaningful discount from year-ago values
- 2,739 active listings — strong selection still available
- 97.4% sale-to-list — negotiation is still the norm
- 25-day median DOM — market is moving faster than recent months; less time to sit on decisions
- First YoY sales gain suggests demand is returning — buyer advantage may be starting to moderate
- Well-priced, well-presented homes are attracting offers — move with purpose on the right listing
Best Conditions in Months — Spring Has Arrived
- 586 sales in March — highest monthly volume in this cycle's recent data
- DOM at 25 days — market is moving at its fastest pace since the slowdown began
- Inventory growth slowing — your competition is not growing as fast as it was
- First YoY sales gain signals buyers are re-engaging — spring demand is real
- Price still matters — HPI down 7.4% means buyers know the market
- A well-positioned listing in March has better odds than at any point in recent months
What the March 2026 Data Is Telling Us
March 2026 is the most encouraging data point this market has produced in several months. Sales up 4.1% year-over-year. Days on market compressing to 25. Inventory growth slowing to 7% from 12–13%. These are directional shifts worth paying attention to.
The market is not declaring a recovery — one month doesn't establish a trend. The SNLR of 39.3% still sits in buyer's market territory, HPI benchmarks are still down significantly year-over-year, and 2,739 active listings means buyers still have real choice and leverage.
But the direction of travel has changed. For buyers, the window of maximum leverage may be starting to narrow. For sellers, the spring market is showing up — and a well-prepared, well-priced listing has better odds in March 2026 than at any point in recent months. Strategy, preparation, and pricing remain the deciding factors on both sides.
Ryan and Sandra give you straight data, no spin — and a strategy built for the market as it actually is, not as it was.
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Ryan Hodge & Sandra Tavares · The Realty Firm Inc. Brokerage
📞 519-601-1160 ·
✉ ryan@therealtyfirm.ca ·
🌐 www.ryanhodge.ca
734 Wellington Street, London, Ontario N6A 3S4
All market data sourced from LSTAR (London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS®). Not intended as financial or investment advice.
