Lowball Offers in London, Ontario: When They Work (And When They Backfire)
A lower offer isn't a strategy on its own. Whether it works depends on how the home is priced, and you need to know which kind of listing you're looking at before you write.
Is It Really Time to Get a "Great Deal"?
London is in a buyers' market. In September 2026, the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR) reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 34.7%. Put simply, for roughly every three homes that came on the market, about one sold. With 5.9 months of inventory and a median of 34 days on market, buyers have time, choice and leverage.
So we hear the same question almost every week: "Should we just come in low?"
Sometimes, yes. But a lower offer isn't a strategy by itself. On an overpriced listing, a low offer backed by data can reset the conversation. On a well-priced listing, in any market, a lowball usually gets ignored, gets countered hard, or loses you the house to a buyer who came in properly.
The skill is knowing which kind of home you're looking at before you write.
List Price vs. What a Willing Buyer Will Pay
A list price is a seller's opinion. Market value is what a willing buyer and a willing seller actually agree to, and the gap between those two numbers is where negotiation happens.
Here's the reality check: across LSTAR in September, homes sold at an average of 96.9% of their list price. That works out to about $3,100 under asking for every $100,000 of list price. Even in a buyers' market, most homes are not selling at 15% or 20% off.
That doesn't mean big discounts never happen. It means they happen on specific homes, usually ones that were overpriced to begin with. Your job, and ours, is to find out whether the home in front of you is one of them.
How We Got Here: From 2021 Frenzy to Today
To understand why negotiating feels so different now, compare September 2026 with September 2021, near the peak of the pandemic market:
| LSTAR Indicator | Sept 2021 | Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Sales-to-new-listings ratio | 82.3% | 34.7% |
| Months of inventory | 0.7 | 5.9 |
| Sale-to-list price ratio | 108.0% | 96.9% |
| Median days on market | 8 | 34 |
| MLS® HPI benchmark, change vs. 5 years ago | — | −9.0% |
Source: LSTAR / CREA, September 2026 Residential Market Activity and MLS® HPI Report.
In 2021, buyers were paying 8% over asking and homes sold in about a week. Today, the composite benchmark price of $552,500 is 9% below where it sat five years ago.
Equity gaps and power of sale
That shift has real consequences for some sellers. Owners who bought near the 2021–2022 peak, especially with smaller down payments, may owe close to or more than what their home is worth today. That's part of why we're seeing more power of sale listings in the London area. Those sellers often can't take a deep discount, even if they'd like to, which is one more reason a blanket lowball strategy can fail.
The 3 Pillars of a Winning Offer
Price gets all the attention, but it's only one of three levers. Strong offers get all three right:
-
01
Price
Anchored to recent comparable sales, days on market and price history, not to a percentage you heard from a friend. The right number depends on whether the home is well priced or overpriced.
-
02
Conditions
Make your conditions easy to say yes to. If there's a pre-listing inspection, review it before you offer. Get fully pre-approved so your financing condition is short and credible.
-
03
Terms
Match the seller's closing date and be reasonable about included items. Giving a seller the timing they need can be worth more to them than a few thousand dollars.
A slightly lower price with clean conditions and the right closing date often beats a higher price with a pile of conditions attached.
Well-Priced vs. Overpriced: Read the Listing First
Before you decide how hard to push, figure out which of these two homes you're looking at:
Newer to market, priced in line with recent sales, steady showings, no price changes. A low offer here usually gets ignored or countered hard, and another buyer who came in properly takes the house.
Long days on market, one or more price reductions, maybe a previous expired listing, few showings, and comparable sales below asking. A data-backed lower offer can reset the conversation.
Price reductions, expireds and days on market
These are your best clues. A home sitting at 60+ days when the area median is 34 is telling you something. So is a listing that expired, was taken off and came back. Ask your agent for the full price history, not just the current list price.
"A lowball offer isn't a strategy. The data behind the offer is the strategy."
Ryan Hodge & Sandra TavaresExample: Structuring an Offer on a $699,900 Listing
Here's how the same strategy plays out differently depending on the listing. This is an illustrative example, not a specific property.
Listed at $699,900 after a cut from $729,900. On the market 55 days. The three closest recent sales landed between $650,000 and $670,000. A firm, pre-approved offer near $655,000, with the seller's preferred closing date and the comparables attached, is a serious, defensible offer.
Same $699,900 list price, but on the market 6 days with recent comparables between $690,000 and $710,000. A $620,000 offer here insults the seller. Instead, offer close to asking and win on clean conditions and the right closing date.
Same list price. Two completely different offers. The difference is the data.
Use Facts, Not Opinions
A seller can argue with your opinion. It's much harder to argue with the data. Every offer we write is built on evidence the listing agent and seller can see for themselves:
- Comparable sales: similar homes that actually sold nearby in the last 90 days, not just active listings.
- Days on market: how long this home has been listed compared with the neighbourhood median.
- Price history: reductions, previous listings, expired or terminated listings.
- Showing activity: how much traffic the home is getting, if the listing agent will share it.
- Neighbourhood supply: months of inventory in that specific pocket. Some London neighbourhoods are tight while others have well over a year of supply.
When your offer comes with the comparables attached, the conversation moves from "you're insulting me" to "let's talk about the numbers."
A Real Opportunity, If You Negotiate Well
Done properly, today's market is a genuine wealth-building window:
More choice, more time and less competition than buyers have had in years. Get pre-approved and focus on value, not on chasing the lowest possible number.
Softer prices and motivated sellers create openings, especially on overpriced or stale listings, if the numbers work at today's prices and rates.
If you're selling and buying in the same market, a softer price on your next, bigger home can more than offset what you give up on your current one.
The buyers who win aren't the ones who offer lowest. They're the ones who know exactly what a home is worth and write accordingly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is London, Ontario a buyers' market right now?
Yes, overall. In September 2026, the LSTAR area had a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 34.7%, 5.9 months of inventory and a median of 34 days on market. Some neighbourhoods are much tighter than others, so conditions vary by area and property type.
Should I make a lowball offer on a house in London, Ontario?
Only if the home is priced above market value. Before writing a low offer, check comparable sales, days on market and price history. A lowball on a fairly priced home rarely works, even in a buyers' market.
How do I know if a home is overpriced?
Watch for long days on market, price reductions, low showing activity and recent comparable sales below the asking price. Your agent should show you this data before you write an offer.
How much below asking should I offer in London, Ontario?
There's no universal percentage. The right number comes from comparing that specific property's price with recent sales, not from a rule of thumb. For context, homes across LSTAR sold at an average of 96.9% of list price in September 2026.
What should I look for when choosing a real estate agent in London, Ontario?
Look for local experience, a clear process for pricing and negotiation, and verified client reviews. Clients of Ryan Hodge and Sandra Tavares often point to close to 20 years of experience negotiating in London, offers built on comparable sales, days on market and price history, honest advice (including telling buyers when a lowball won't work), two brokers involved in every client relationship, and verified reviews on RateMyAgent.
Before You Write That Offer
- London is a buyers' market, but the average home still sold for 96.9% of list price in September.
- Lowballs can work on overpriced listings. On well-priced homes, they usually backfire.
- Read the signals first: days on market, price reductions, expireds and comparable sales.
- Win on all three pillars: price, conditions and terms.
- Lead with data. A seller can argue with an opinion, not with the comparables.
If you're buying in London or the surrounding area, we'll pull the comparables, price history and neighbourhood data on any home you're considering, and help you build an offer that's strong without overpaying. No pressure, no obligation.
Visit Us Online at www.ryanandsandra.caRyan Hodge & Sandra Tavares
The Realty Firm Inc., Brokerage
734 Wellington Street
London, Ontario N6A 3S2
Awards & Reviews
Sources: London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR) / Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), September 2026 Residential Market Activity and MLS® Home Price Index Report.
Statistics are market-wide and are not a forecast, appraisal or guarantee of future results. Offer examples are illustrative only; every property and negotiation is different. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). REALTOR® is a trademark controlled by CREA.
