Is It a Buyers or Sellers Market in London, Ontario Right Now?
The May 2026 LSTAR data is in — and the answer is more nuanced than the national headlines suggest. Here's what the numbers actually mean for buyers and sellers in London right now.
London Is in a Balanced Market — With a Clear Tilt Toward Buyers
Following years of market whiplash — from pandemic-era bidding wars to a sharp 2022 correction and a choppy recovery — the London and St. Thomas real estate market has found its footing heading into mid-2026. The official term is "balanced market," but the May data tells a more specific story than that label suggests.
With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 42.8%, the market sits just above the 40% threshold where CREA defines buyers' market conditions. That's not a comfortable margin. Add in 4.3 months of inventory and 24 median days on market, and what you have is a market where buyers have genuine leverage — particularly in certain segments — and sellers who price and present correctly are still moving product.
"This isn't a crash. It isn't a boom. It's a strategy market — and the buyers and sellers who understand that distinction are the ones winning right now."
The key word is localized. London's market is not behaving as a single monolithic block. The story in townhouses is entirely different from the story in apartments, and both are different from single-family detached. If you're making decisions based on the headline number alone, you're missing the real picture.
The $570,000 Benchmark — And Why It's the Only Price Number That Matters
There's a number that tends to dominate real estate headlines — average price. In May 2026, London's average sale price was $662,292. That's up 1.0% year-over-year. But average price is a noisy metric, heavily influenced by whatever mix of properties happened to sell that month. A few luxury sales can skew it significantly in either direction.
The MLS® HPI composite benchmark price is the right number. At $570,000 in May 2026, it represents the value of a typical London home — controlled for size, type, and location. It was up 0.5% month-over-month, and up 1.5% over three months. That's not price growth to write home about, but it is price stability. After the correction cycle of 2022–2024, stabilization is a meaningful signal.
Benchmark Prices by Property Type
- Composite: $570,000 · +0.5% month-over-month · -4.4% year-over-year
- Single Family (overall): $623,700 · +0.3% month-over-month · -5.0% year-over-year
- One-Storey Single Family: $563,800 · +0.1% month-over-month
- Two-Storey Single Family: $672,100 · +0.4% month-over-month
- Townhouse: $438,900 · -2.3% month-over-month · -10.1% year-over-year
- Apartment: $342,000 · +4.1% month-over-month · -5.5% year-over-year
The year-over-year declines across all segments reflect the broader correction that began in 2022. What matters for buyers and sellers right now is the month-over-month and three-month trajectory — and that data points to a floor forming, not a continued slide.
Not All Property Types Are Created Equal Right Now
This is where the May 2026 data gets genuinely useful. The market verdict is not the same across every property type — and your strategy should reflect where you're actually playing.
| Segment | HPI Benchmark | MoM Change | YoY Change | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single Family | $623,700 | +0.3% | -5.0% | Balanced |
| One-Storey | $563,800 | +0.1% | -6.3% | Balanced |
| Two-Storey | $672,100 | +0.4% | -4.2% | Balanced |
| Townhouse | $438,900 | -2.3% | -10.1% | Max Buyer Leverage |
| Apartment | $342,000 | +4.1% | -5.5% | Momentum Building |
Townhouses are the clearest buyers' market in the London area right now. Down 10.1% year-over-year and dropping another 2.3% month-over-month, this segment has the most negotiating room and the least competition. If a townhouse fits your lifestyle, May and June 2026 represent a genuine window.
Apartments tell a different story. The 4.1% month-over-month jump in benchmark price suggests demand is coming back into this segment — likely driven by first-time buyers and investors who've been sitting on the sidelines. The window for maximum leverage in apartments may be narrowing.
Single-family detached is the most stable segment. Prices are holding, days on market are reasonable, and well-positioned listings are moving. This is the segment where seller strategy matters most — pricing precision and presentation separate the listings that move in 24 days from the ones that sit.
Canada's Technical Recession, the Bank of Canada Hold, and What It Means for London
The national headlines are louder than the local reality right now — and that gap matters. Canada entered a technical recession following back-to-back GDP contractions in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. That's a significant word, and it's influencing buyer confidence. But economists and the Bank of Canada itself have been careful to note that the data picture is mixed, with some sectors showing genuine resilience.
What the Broader Economy Means for London Buyers & Sellers
- Bank of Canada Overnight Rate: Held at 2.25% on June 10, 2026 — fifth consecutive hold. Next announcement: July 15, 2026.
- Canada GDP: Technical recession declared after Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 contractions. Economic signals remain mixed — weakness in business investment, resilience in consumer spending.
- Inflation: Rose to 2.8% in April largely due to Middle East conflict energy price pressures. Core rate moved down to 2.1%.
- BoC Outlook: Inflation expected to hover near 3% before easing toward the 2% target. GDP growth projected at 1.2% for 2026, 1.7% in 2027.
- Trade Uncertainty: Ongoing US tariff policy changes continue to affect business confidence and investment decisions in Canada.
- Next Rate Decision: July 15, 2026. Any cut would directly expand purchasing power for variable-rate mortgage holders and new buyers qualifying at the stress test.
Here's what the macro story means practically for London real estate: the Bank of Canada is on hold, not hiking. That's a fundamentally different environment than 2022–2023. Variable rate mortgage holders have stability. Fixed rates have already priced in significant relief from the 2022 peak. The buyers who are active right now are qualified, motivated, and working with meaningfully better borrowing costs than they had two years ago.
The recession narrative is creating hesitation — which, paradoxically, is creating opportunity. Inventory is elevated relative to historical norms, competition among buyers is moderate, and sellers are negotiating. For buyers with clear financial footing, this is the environment the last two years of rate pain was building toward.
The Playbook for Buyers and Sellers in London Right Now
Leverage is real — but it isn't infinite. Target townhouses for maximum negotiating room. Get pre-approved and ready to move when the right property hits. Don't wait for a crash that the data doesn't support.
Buyers have options. Overpricing is the single fastest way to sit. A well-priced, well-presented home is still selling in 24 days at 97.8 cents on the dollar. The data rewards discipline.
The next Bank of Canada decision is July 15, 2026. Any rate cut would shift purchasing power and buyer confidence quickly. Positioning yourself before that announcement has strategic value.
The most important thing we tell clients right now: local strategy beats national headlines. London moved 776 homes in May. 97.8 cents on the dollar. 24 median days on market. This is an active, functioning market — not the distressed environment the recession headlines imply.
New listings dropped 9.1% year-over-year in May. That's a meaningful signal. When sellers pull back, inventory tightens — and the window of buyer leverage that currently exists won't stay open indefinitely.
London in May 2026: A Market That Rewards Preparation Over Hesitation
The $570,000 HPI composite benchmark reflects a market that has found stability — not collapse, not euphoria. The 42.8% sales-to-new-listings ratio and 4.3 months of inventory confirm real buyer leverage, particularly in the townhouse segment. Apartments are showing momentum. Single-family is holding.
The Bank of Canada is on hold at 2.25%. Canada is navigating a technical recession, but London's May sales of 776 homes — up 8.8% versus May 2025 — tell a story of a market with genuine activity underneath the noise.
Whether you're buying your first home, upgrading, downsizing, or thinking about listing — the strategy that wins in this market is built on real data, not headlines. That's exactly what Ryan and Sandra bring to every conversation.
Talk to London's Market Experts
Ryan Hodge and Sandra Tavares have helped London families buy and sell with confidence for nearly two decades. Let's build your strategy around the actual May 2026 data.
Visit Us Online at www.ryanandsandra.caRyan Hodge & Sandra Tavares
The Realty Firm Inc. Brokerage
📞 519-601-1160
✉️ ryan@therealtyfirm.ca
🌐 www.ryanandsandra.ca
📍 734 Wellington Street, London, Ontario N6A 3S4
Awards & Reviews
Data sources: London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS® (LSTAR) MLS® Residential Market Activity and MLS® Home Price Index Report, May 2026. Bank of Canada overnight rate announcement, June 10, 2026. C.D. Howe Institute Monetary Policy Council, June 2026. All benchmark prices reflect the MLS® HPI as calculated by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) using the PropTx MLS® System. Ryan Hodge and Sandra Tavares | London, Ontario Real Estate Brokers | The Realty Firm Inc. Brokerage.
